KEENE, N.H. (MyKeeneNow.com) With competitive races for Congress, the U.S. Senate and the New Hampshire Legislature putting voters’ attention and campaign dollars to the test, political analyst Scott Spradling joined Dan Mitchell on WKBK Radio’s Good Morning with Dan Mitchell on Wednesday to discuss the state’s political landscape ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Spradling, who has covered New Hampshire politics for decades and moderated the state’s gubernatorial debate, described the 2026 election cycle as one of the most intense in recent memory. He discussed polling trends, campaign strategies, the increasingly contentious tone of political advertising and the potential implications for New Hampshire’s next presidential primary.

The stakes extend beyond individual races, with both parties competing for control of Congress and voters weighing their satisfaction with the direction of the country.

Mitchell and Spradling also discussed the significant financial investment in this year’s campaigns, particularly the U.S. Senate contest. Mitchell estimated that spending by both sides in the race could exceed $100 million.

Polling suggests Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage of roughly five to eight percentage points, according to the discussion. Independent voters also appear highly engaged, adding uncertainty to forecasts about the election’s outcome.

Spradling cautioned against treating polling as a prediction of the final results, noting that surveys capture voter sentiment at a particular moment and carry margins of error. While Democrats could make gains, the extent of any shift remains uncertain.

Senate and congressional races draw attention

The U.S. Senate race between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu was among the contests examined during the broadcast.

A St. Anselm College poll discussed by Spradling showed Pappas leading Sununu, 50% to 43%. Spradling characterized the race as leaning toward Democrats, citing Pappas’ support among Democratic and undeclared voters, while emphasizing that the result is far from settled.

The candidates’ debate participation and efforts to turn out voters could also play important roles as Election Day approaches.

In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Stephanie Shaheen and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo are locked in a closely contested race. Spradling said both candidates have performed well, even as increasingly aggressive negative advertising has become a feature of the contest.

The 2nd Congressional District presents a different picture. A poll cited during the program showed Democratic incumbent Maggie Goodlander leading Republican Lily Tang Williams, 54% to 38%.

The discussion also turned to the gubernatorial contest between Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cindy Warmington. Ayotte has demonstrated an ability to attract support from independent voters and some Democrats, while Warmington has faced financial challenges and criticism related to her previous work in the pharmaceutical industry.

Debate preparation and campaign strategy

Drawing on his experience moderating political debates, Spradling explained that successful debate performances generally reflect extensive preparation rather than improvisation alone.

Candidates typically rehearse their arguments, anticipate opponents’ lines of attack and practice responding in ways that sound natural under pressure. For moderators, the challenge is to keep the discussion on schedule, ask substantive questions and allow candidates opportunities to engage directly with one another.

Spradling pointed to the late U.S. Sen. John McCain as an example of an effective debater, highlighting his authenticity and willingness to correct false claims. He contrasted that approach with President Donald Trump’s more confrontational political style.

Candidates’ decisions to skip certain debates have also attracted scrutiny, raising questions about their willingness to face opponents directly and answer questions from voters.

Looking ahead to New Hampshire’s presidential primary

Beyond the midterms, Spradling and Mitchell considered what the current political environment could mean for New Hampshire’s next presidential primary.

Spradling anticipates a potentially crowded Republican primary field in the state, although the influence Trump will have over the eventual field remains uncertain. The possibility of Trump backing Vice President JD Vance also figured into the discussion of the party’s future direction.

On the Democratic side, prospective candidates have already been making visits to New Hampshire despite the Democratic National Committee’s preference for a different order in the presidential nominating calendar.

The state’s first-in-the-nation primary tradition remains a significant consideration for candidates seeking early exposure and voter support, even as national party leaders continue to debate the nominating process.

With Election Day approaching, the conversation underscored the uncertainty surrounding New Hampshire’s competitive races and the importance of turnout, campaign messaging and voters’ views on national and state issues.

Mitchell and Spradling are scheduled to revisit the results during a post-election discussion on WKBK the morning after Election Day, between 7:30 and 8 a.m., following the 7:30 a.m. news.

Listen to the full interview: